wfn.org | Racial/ethnic population trends challenge United Methodists

[NewsDesk <NewsDesk@UMCOM.UMC.ORG>]

Aug. 21, 1998	Contact: Thomas S. McAnally*(615)742-5470*Nashville,
Tenn.       {494}
 
DAYTON, Ohio (UMNS) -  Racial and ethnic population in the United States
will reach 36 percent of the total by the year 2020, up from 24.3
percent in 1990, according to a recent report by the United Methodist
General Council on Ministries (GCOM).

During this 30-year period, the racial and ethnic population is expected
to increase by 55 million, while the European American population
increase is projected for 18 million, according to GCOM's research
office. The growth of racial/ethnic population will be 10 times greater
than the European American population, so for every four additional
individuals in the United States, three will be people of color. The
Asian Pacific American, Hispanic American and Native American
populations will each more than double.

The report is based on projections compiled by Woods and Poole Economics
Inc., a demographic research firm in Washington. The organization uses
U.S. census data and sophisticated trend analysis to project population
shifts.

The United Methodist Church has about 8 million white members and a
half-million racial/ethnic members in the United States. To make the
2020 projections by Woods and Poole more relevant to United Methodists,
the GCOM staff has compiled data for each of the church's 66 annual
(regional) conferences and five jurisdictions in the United States.

GCOM President Bishop J. Woodrow Hearn of Houston said the projections
send a message to the United Methodist Church as it moves into a new
century.  

"We must learn new ways of relating to persons who represent a variety
of cultures, languages and traditions," he said. "To have a wider
selection of all God's people in the church can enrich us as we share
with each other."

The denomination is fortunate because it is already a global church with
congregations in the United States, Africa, Asia and Europe, Hearn said.

"Those of us in the United States can learn from our sisters and
brothers in other parts of the world," he said. "They have already
discovered ways to effectively reach people from diverse backgrounds."

The 12-state Western Jurisdiction will have the largest increase in
population during the 30-year period (24.4 million), according to the
projections released by GCOM. Of this number, 18.4 million -- or three
out of four new people - will be from racial-ethnic backgrounds. 

The nine-state Southeastern Jurisdiction will have the most rapid
population growth for all groups, with the racial/ethnic population
making up half of the total (10.9 million of 21.8 million). In the
eight-state South Central Jurisdiction, the racial/ethnic population
will double (10.7 million to 21.5 million), and its portion of the total
population will increase 14 percentage points ( 28.6 percent in 1990 to
42.3 percent in 2020).

The European American population in the 12-state Northeastern
Jurisdiction will decline 7.8 percent during the 30-year period,
representing 3.5 million fewer people. For every five new ethnic/racial
persons in the region, there will be two fewer European Americans.  The
racial/ethnic proportion will increase by 12 percentage points (22.1
percent in 1990 to 34.5 percent in 2020).

In the church's nine-state North Central Jurisdiction, the racial/ethnic
growth will be 15 times that of European Americans (81.5 percent vs. 5.4
percent).  In actual numbers, the racial/ethnic population growth will
be 2 ½ times that of European Americans (6 million to 4.7 million).

Asian Pacific American and Native American populations will double in
the North Central Jurisdiction, while in the South Central area,
Hispanic American population will increase to 60 percent of the
racial/ethnic population growth.

In the Southeastern Jurisdiction, the African American population will
grow by 5 million, and the Native American population will double from
150,000 to 389,000. The most dramatic increase in the Southeast will be
among Hispanic Americans, whose total will more than triple from 2
million to 6.9 million.

Projections for each of the United Methodist annual (regional)
conferences is available by contacting the GCOM Office of Research:
(937) 227-9400; e-mail:  www.gcom-umc.org

Statistics for each jurisdiction follow can be found at
http://www.umc.org/umns/98/aug/494.htm