wfn.org | March toward 2000: answers to questions churches ought to know

[NewsDesk <NewsDesk@UMCOM.UMC.ORG>]

Feb . 1,  1999	Contact: Thomas S. McAnally*(615)742-5470*Nashville, Tenn.
10-21-71B{055}

NOTE:  This article first appeared in the January issue of the Virginia
Advocate.  Used with permission.

A UMNS Feature
By Tracy R. Bair*

Most computer programs rely on dates or times.  Prior to 1997, most used
just two characters to refer to a particular year.  For example, 1997 was
stored as "97."  

While it is easy to question these decisions as we approach the year 2000,
decisions to design computer programs and hardware to use just two
characters for the year were based on good business assumptions: Computer
storage was very expensive and most computer programs were used for a
limited period of time, many less than two years.  As a result, it was hard
to imagine a program being in use more than 10 years.  Also, computer
hardware had a very short life span.  

Remember BetaMax?  The end of this century has been a period of rapid
technological change, with systems quickly becoming obsolete.  The thought
that hardware would remain in use more than a few years seemed to be
unthinkable.

What's all the worry about?

While the assumptions were valid for many programs and a lot of hardware,
the date change can cause financial systems to operate in unpredictable
ways.

Perhaps you will be charged for 100 years of interest for new charges posted
to your bank card in 2000.  Or orders for fuel to power your local power
company may be ignored by the coal or fuel oil supplier's ordering program,
as the programs think that the orders were submitted in 1900 and are not
current orders.  Or the systems may not be able to properly issue payment or
benefit checks.

Why don't we just go back to manual procedures?

Many people in business assumed that it would be simple to use manual backup
systems, until they realized that their businesses no longer had manual
procedures, forms ledgers, or the auditing procedures for manual reviews.
Not only did they not have the procedures, but their current employees also
did not have the skills or training required to implement the manual
procedures.

In some cases, manual procedures are realistic, provided the company takes
the time and finds the training.  But it isn't that easy.  

Consider this: have you been in a retail store recently when the electronic
cash registers stopped working?  Not only do the registers lock the drawers,
but even if the drawers could be opened, many cashiers could not easily make
change or record a sale without the electronic cash register.  And remember
when we could figure out the sales tax in our heads, knowing which items
various taxes applied to?  A recent survey result showed that not one store
cashier out of 40 could manually compute sales tax. 

Why is this a problem for individuals?

Most of the things we do in and out of our homes is potentially affected.
Computers control traffic lights, maintain the inventories in the stores
where we shop, control all of our utilities, including telephone,
electricity, natural gas, and water.  Even those systems that are not
directly controlled by computers rely on computer systems for obtaining the
required raw materials, shipping, payroll and paying taxes.

We rely on ATM cards for cash, use bank cards to buy gasoline and make
purchases, and rely on our employers to use electronic funds transfers to
place our salaries in the bank on time.

This article was written on a computer and sent by e-mail.  Thousands of
computer chips are involved in controlling our power plants; tens of
thousands of computer chips are required to operate an offshore oil platform
facility; and hundreds of computer chips control the distribution systems we
rely on for food, heat and basic services.

Should I start stockpiling food and supplies now?

It is not necessary to stockpile large quantities of food and supplies.  To
do so could have more serious impact on the economy that the computer
problems.

Companies establish production capacities based on consumer demand.  If
thousands of people begin stockpiling, companies will be faced with
responding to a "false" demand in order to keep up with the business.  While
this may seem to be a benefit, the end result is much like a farmer's family
eating the seed corn --- the immediate impact is good, but in the long term
there is no seed to plant in the spring.

The people hired to produce the increased demand must be laid off once the
increase is satisfied.  Additionally, as companies miss projections of the
real underlying demand for goods, they will either have more goods in the
warehouse than they need or will be unable to supply needs.  In either case,
the result is a significant increase in unemployment, closed businesses, and
shortages.

On the other hand, we can expect to experience spot shortages of goods and
services, much like we experience when a storm is threatened.  Ever try to
buy milk four hours after a winter storm warning has been issued?  A
reasonable approach is to do limited stocking of critical items, such as
special diet items and other essentials that are critical to life.

How about debt?

We could all benefit from using November 1999 as a deadline to reduce our
personal debt, particularly short-term debts on bank and retail charge
cards.  The lower our personal debt, the more flexibility we will have to
adapt to the unexpected changes that the year 2000 will bring to all of our
lives.

We could also use this year to simplify our lives, freeing ourselves of
dependence on prepared food, technological gadgets, and other things we do
not need.  We can become better stewards and lead simpler debt-free lives.

Our church just upgraded our computers.  Do we need to get new ones?

Probably not.  The key is to understand how the computers are used in church
administration.  If the computers are only being used for correspondence,
educational materials, and bulletins, they will most likely be able to
continue to do those functions through the century date change period.

If you use your computer to track membership and finances, you may have some
problems.  Two things must work correctly for computer programs that use
dates:

*	Your computer hardware must be able to store a date for the year
2000.  The hardware must be able to process dates, or it may store incorrect
date information.
*	Your computer programs must be able to handle dates in the year
2000.  The logic in the computer program must be properly coded to handle
year 2000 dates. 

Can't I just reset my computer to year 2000 and test it?

That depends on how the computer is used and your knowledge of computer
technology.  Your best resource for determining if your computer will work
in the year 2000 is to consult the Internet pages that are maintained by the
manufacturer of your system.  While these certifications are not absolutely
reliable, you are much better off relying on vendor information than trying
to test the computer yourself.

Why can't I test it myself?

For some computers, changing the date can introduce serious problems,
including losing files, confusing backup programs, and destroying critical
configuration items.  While this risk is minimal for a computer that is not
connected to a network, it is certainly a possibility.

I have heard that I must update the BIOS.  What do I do?

The BIOS is a special program permanently stored in the computer's memory.
The  BIOS controls most aspects of the computer's internal operation.
Several manufacturers have updated their BIOS program to fix year 2000
problems with the hardware.  Copies of the BIOS program can be downloaded
from the Internet, along with instructions for doing the installation.

However, there are serious risks with updating the BIOS program.  If you do
not consider yourself an experienced computer hardware technician, you are
better off paying a reliable technician the relative small cost of updating
the BIOS for you.

Do I need to replace my software?

Probably not.  A lot of personal use software and typical software used in a
church environment will work just find in the year 2000.  However, you need
to decide how you use each program and if the program uses dates.  If it
does, then you need to check the software vendor's Web site for information
on which versions are suitable for use during year 2000.

A good example is church membership software.  Many churches use a package
to keep the church records but they still use the official paper membership
forms and keep the paper records up to date.  For these churches,, the
manual system could become the primary records if the computer package
fails.  High membership churches, however, may rely on the membership
software to produce mailing labels for weekly mailings and other critical
functions.   Doing these tasks by hand may not be possible, so in this case,
an update in software would  be critical.

Are upgrades for year 2000 free?

Most are not.  You will be expected to pay for the upgraded product.

I've got a Macintosh.  What do I do?

Smile!  The Macintosh is one of the few personal computers that was designed
for operation in the year 2000.  Most Macintosh software is also free of the
year 2000 bug.

Some say this is a good time for churches to obtain free equipment.  Should
we use equipment discarded by others?

Absolutely.  Many businesses are discarding perfectly good equipment that
would suit many churches.  For these businesses, it makes good sense to
update all of their systems to new equipment to reduce risks related to
supporting a lot of different computer models.

Ask members in the congregation who work for banks and large companies that
might be updating equipment.  Visit local businesses and let them know that
you have real needs for the equipment.  Lead a committee at your local
chamber of commerce to help businesses distribute used equipment to
nonprofit organizations.  Make phone calls, starting with the public affairs
or consumer affairs offices, and ask for help.  Thousands of computers will
simply be thrown in the trash because companies did not know who might be
able to use them.

If you do not have a computer today, the discarded computer would certainly
help you move toward an automated environment.  Often, there are youth and
adults with excellent computer skills that are very helpful in making a
decision on taking old equipment and on putting the old equipment into use.

Is there a checklist so we can do the right things at church?

1. 	Inventory the computer equipment, including computers that control
the building air conditioning and heating systems and the telephone systems
(for churches with their own telephone switch equipment).

2. 	Inventory the software programs used for the church's business.
Make sure you talk to staff, treasurer, membership secretary, and other
volunteers to determine how the software is actually used.

3. 	Check the status of equipment and commercial software packages using
the Internet.

4. 	Based on the date usage, develop plans to upgrade equipment and
software.  Plan to have all required upgrades completed before June 1999.

5. 	Check with the manufacturer/supplier for your other computer
controlled equipment, including telephone switches, air conditioning and
heating systems, and advanced copiers.  If upgrades are required, determine
if the upgrades are provided under warranty or if they must be purchased.
Develop a plan to install all upgrades by June 1999.

6. 	Create regular backups of all your church data.  As a minimum, do a
complete backup of all data each month, backing up more critical files on a
weekly basis.  And do not rely on automated programs for these critical
backups!

7. 	Only install new software if it is needed for year 2000.  Every
change to computer software introduces the risk of unintentional new
problems.  A good example is the recent upgrade by Microsoft for the Office
Suite.  While the Excel spreadsheet worked perfectly in handling dates in
the year 2000, the basic recalculation function was inadvertently broken,
taking almost three months for Microsoft to fix.  If you don't need an
upgrade, don't install it.

8. 	Help keep the congregation informed.  Again, the greatest year 2000
risk is irrational behavior of the public.  Consider setting up a year 2000
information table in your church, using information readily available from
your local utilities, banks, and major businesses.

What else can I do?

We have come to realize that our national response to year 2000 requires a
community-based approach.  We need to develop networks of people willing to
work closely together to resolve community issues, including food shortages,
unemployment, and disruption of critical community services.

We cannot wait until year 2000 to put these vital mechanisms in place. Our
churches can take a strong leadership role, modeling on community systems
used during disaster relief and storm damages.  And we must keep informed,
making sure that any information we pass on is correct, and not just another
Internet rumor or hoax.

The days ahead will indeed be challenging to all of us, as we deal with the
unknown and wrestle with the personal decisions we must make.  Yet this
challenge provides the opportunity for the church to more fully realize its
calling to become the body of Christ for the whole.

# # #

*Bair is pastor of Liberty United Methodist Church in Bealeton, Va.  He is
also a consultant  for Science Applications International Corporation,
directing a software development center at Vint Hill Farms Station, Va.,
consulting to major multinational insurance and energy firms and federal
agencies (including the FAA and SEC), and speaking on strategies for year
2000 at major conferences throughout the nation.

______________
United Methodist News Service
http://www.umc.org/umns/
newsdesk@umcom.umc.org
(615)742-5472