wfn.org | A look at possible problems the year 2000 could bring

[Daphne Mack <dmack@dfms.org>]

99-2295
Running out of time

by Jan Nunley
It's January 1, 2000. Saturday morning is quiet-too quiet, 
in fact. In the darkness, I see the blue numbers on my clock radio 
pulsing 12:00 a.m., but I know it's later than that. There's a 
chill in the air, and as I pull on my bathrobe I notice that I 
can't feel the familiar rumble of the oil burner through the 
floor, can't smell freshly-brewed java, can't detect the bland hum 
of the refrigerator. There's no traffic outside. Only the tick-
tick-tick of the battery-operated clock on the kitchen wall sounds 
normal. I pick up the phone to call my parents on their 55th 
wedding anniversary. No dial tone-just dead air. The cell phone 
doesn't work either. Neither do the lights next door in the 
church...
Sunday morning's going to be really interesting around here. 

Two zero zero zero: party over, out of time? 
My future Saturday morning dilemma arises from something 
known variously as the "millennium bug," the "Year 2000 
problem," or simply "Y2K"-with the Y standing for the year, 2 
for the new millennium, and K for "kilo" or thousand.

When "The Artist Formerly Known As Prince" first sang his 
pop-apocalypse hit "1999," the date was less than 20 years in the 
future. Computers are quintessential Baby Boomers: the first 
electronic vacuum-tube computer, ENIAC, was born in 1946, and the 
machines learned to talk with the invention of programming 
languages such as FORTRAN (1957), ALGOL (1958), COBOL (1959), and 
BASIC (1964).

Unlike human Boomers, when computers grew up, they got 
smaller. The first "mainframe" was 80 feet long and weighed 30 
tons. Transistors, integrated circuits, and silicon chips made 
possible the "mini," "micro" and PC or "personal computers," 
introduced by IBM in 1981. Just three years later, the more user-
friendly Apple Macintosh, with its point-and-click "graphical 
user interface" design, instead of complex verbal commands, 
emerged to change the face of personal computing.

But computer memory then cost about 10,000 times more than 
it does today. Programmers, desperate to save space and reasoning 
that the code they'd written and the clunky mainframes it ran on 
would be replaced in a few years, used only two digits to identify 
the year. Even embedded chips-the ubiquitous microprocessors that 
control important functions in everything from supertankers to 
traffic lights-had the two-digit year "burned in" to their 
circuits. 

Garbage in, garbage out
Problem is, computers can't think for themselves-a truth 
known among programmers as "garbage in, garbage out." When 
January 1, 2000, arrives, some computers and microchips will check 
their internal calendars and read "00" not as "2000" but as 
"1900." That sounds comical, until your credit card with its 
"00" expiration date is rejected, or you're charged 100 years of 
unpaid interest!

There's a simple fix, of course: change the "source code" 
in all the programs, and switch out the old microchips. But source 
code-and the programming language itself-may have disappeared. 
Many of the original programmers are long since retired or have 
died. There aren't enough programmers in the world, let alone the 
United States, to rewrite billions of lines of code or replace 
existing "legacy" programs in time to beat the deadline, now less 
than a year away. The scale of the problem has been compared to 
trying to produce a baby in one month by getting nine women 
pregnant at the same time.

Microchips present an even more daunting dilemma. Some were 
made by manufacturers long gone to their corporate graves. Newer 
chips may not work in older equipment; the only way to find out is 
to replace them and try again. And some of the chips are buried in 
undersea telecommunications cables, spinning in satellites 
overhead, quietly regulating a heartbeat in someone's pacemaker. 

Breaking the "iron triangle"
What troubles a growing number of experts is the fear that 
the modern world's "iron triangle"-electricity, banking and 
telecommunications services-would be disrupted if a small percent 
of their controlling software and microprocessors fail the Year 
2000 test. Major corporations have already tested some of their 
Y2K "fixes" and report unanticipated glitches, such as the 
Chrysler assembly plant whose security system locked everyone 
inside when its clocks were rolled forward.

Failures in one sector can ripple into others, and people 
who've never switched on a PC in their lives could be affected as 
much as the most dedicated Internet surfer. Driving a late-model 
car? Date-sensitive onboard computer chips control fuel injection, 
smart braking, service indicators, and much more. Microprocessors 
control pumps at the gas station and the flow of crude oil into 
the refinery. Going to buy groceries? Computers read price codes, 
control inventory, call forth "just-in-time" deliveries of fresh 
food by ships, planes, trains and trucks. Just staying home today? 
Heating, cooling, cooking, refrigeration, lights, water, 
sanitation-all depend on utilities which depend on computers. 

TEOTWAWKI
Y2K problems may show up as early as April 1999, as some 
fiscal year-start dates overlap with the year 2000. On August 22, 
computers on the satellite-based Global Positioning System, which 
guides planes, ships and missiles, and which major banks use to 
record the time of day, roll over to zero. September 9, 1999-
"9/9/99"-may be read as an end-of-file signal or a command to 
abort-shutting down for repairs. Welfare, Medicaid, and 
unemployment benefits are at risk. A recent U.S. General 
Accounting Office report says that only about a third of the 421 
state-run benefits computer systems are ready for 2000. Senator 
Bob Bennett (Republican, Utah), who heads the Senate's Special 
Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, has said, "We must 
be Paul Revere. We must tell everyone that Y2K is coming. But we 
must not be Chicken Little and tell them that the sky is 
falling... Don't panic, but don't spend a lot of time sleeping 
either." 

Dr. Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Morgan 
Grenfell in New York, is calling for a "Manhattan Project"-style 
assault on the Y2K problem. Investment gurus such as Andrew Tobias 
are reluctantly recommending that their readers prepare for the 
equivalent of "a very big hurricane"-one in which "you couldn't 
necessarily expect help to come flooding in from the neighboring 
county, because the neighboring county could well be in the same 
boat."

Most fear that panic-driven stockpiling of supplies or bank 
withdrawals could cause dire prophecies of post-Y2K economic 
collapse to become self-fulfilling.

But for others, Y2K represents TEOTWAWKI-"the end of the 
world as we know it"-and they're not sure that's so bad. Dr. 
Gary North, once on the far fringes of the Religious Right, has 
found new respectability in the burgeoning Y2K pundit industry. 
The Jeremiah Project website hints darkly, if confusingly, at the 
coming of the Antichrist and a one-world government resulting from 
the failure of the very technology that's also said to enable the 
same Antichrist to come to power.

Survivalist books and websites offer "prophetic" advice 
ranging from fleeing for a well-stocked rural hideout to 
stockpiling ammunition and hunkering down in the city, prepared 
for food and water wars. 

Repent-or just reboot?
Mainstream Christians, such as Episcopalians, are unlikely 
to embrace anything with even a whiff of the apocalyptic attached 
to it. The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America last fall issued 
a pastoral letter warning that "there is no biblical basis for 
equating a year with Jesus" returning, the coming of the kingdom 
of God, or the end of the world,-but nothing was mentioned about 
the computer glitch. The Assemblies of God has cautioned its 
churches against panic reactions-hoarding food, withdrawing money 
from banks, or expecting the collapse of Western civilization-in 
response to the Y2K issue.

But the subject hasn't been raised in discussions of the 
national Episcopal Church's communications strategy. Many diocesan 
leaders, clergy and laity, seem never to have heard of Y2K.

In one diocese (Rhode Island), an unscientific survey of 
clergy and parishes who regularly use email turned up 
disappointing results: only five of 42 responded. Of these, three 
assumed that Y2K would affect only those with computers. "Our old 
486s at the office with Win95 just need to be manually set to the 
2000 date," wrote one. "My fancier machine at home, and just over 
a year old, will do it all by itself." "I use Apples, and so it 
won't be a problem for me," wrote another. (Most Macintosh 
operating systems won't have problems until the year 29,940, but 
software is another matter.) A third demurred: "Not really my 
field," and promised to forward the survey to parishioners.

A fourth wasn't about to take Y2K too seriously: "Repent, 
the end of the world is at hand!... The will of God is clear as he 
brings his hand of judgment crashing down upon our hard drives. 
Get ye up from your screens, go forth into the world, and bring 
about some quality face time with your neighbors." Only the fifth 
had already preached about the issue. "Common sense emergency 
preparation," this rector recommended, with an attitude of "pray 
for the best, prepare for the worst." 

"Our accounting staff has been reviewing this," reports 
Guillermo Johnson, Director of Communications for La Iglesia 
Episcopal de Panama. "We have been trying to upgrade as many 
computers and software as possible. We have also issued guidelines 
in purchasing equipment to the churches, but as you can imagine, 
they just go for whatever they feel like. As far as I have seen, 
Panama is a PC country, with Macs running far, far behind. So any 
problem would have a common solution."
Tracking the compliance of suppliers is another matter. 
"Some vendors I know are okay, others still use Apple II series 
computers. Others don't even know what PC means," Johnson said, 
adding that "our main bank runs with 8088 computers still.

As far as local government, it is more of a concern that the 
supply for typewriter ribbons doesn't run out. Contingency plans 
unfortunately DO NOT exist. If power goes out, we shut down. If it 
is for an extended period, I imagine that we would revert to 
manual operations."

And if the worst-case scenario really happens? "As a Just 
Cause Survivor, the best I can offer is to preach about how social 
order (among other things) can decay if Fear, and not Christ, 
rules in our hearts and minds," admonishes Johnson. "We had 
power, water, telephones working, but everyone just thought of 
themselves. And as you can imagine, opportunists went out, and 
started looting."

What should churches do?
Once you've sifted through the chaff about Y2K, some things 
do become clear. A survivalist, everyone-for-herself approach just 
doesn't make sense. As Y2K authority Peter de Jager puts it: "You 
can't head for the hills because everybody else is going to be in 
the hills." What will work are community-based solutions, in 
which churches can play an important part. "The best security you 
have is a prepared neighbor," advises Paloma O'Riley, of the 
Cassandra Project.

Churches can start with a plan similar to the one 
recommended for businesses. The first stage is awareness: learning 
the facts about Y2K and educating each other responsibly. 
Obsessing about Y2K won't help. Neither will ignore it. Think of 
this as contingency planning for an unusually stormy winter-say, 
ten blizzards in a row.

The second step is inventory and assessment. How's your 
church computer system? Many churches limp along with outdated IBM 
286 and 386 systems and old software donated by parishioners. Do 
what you can to upgrade-prices on new Y2K-tested systems are 
lower than ever.

How else is your church vulnerable? Is your bank, oil 
company, electric utility or phone company ready-and are their 
suppliers ready, too? How would you conduct worship if your 
sanctuary had no water, no heat, and no lights? How would you 
contact people if phones were down? How would your congregation 
get to church if their cars wouldn't start, or couldn't be fueled? 
How would your budget be affected if attendance dropped off 
sharply as a result?

Analyze your church's ministries and outreach programs. 
Decide which are "mission critical." Define which functions 
target your members (such as worship services, Sunday school and 
adult Christian education, outreach to shut-ins and the elderly) 
and which serve the community (such as food pantries, soup 
kitchens, or 12-step groups). Churches have strong 
responsibilities to both; neither can be discounted. The decisions 
you make will reflect how your congregation sees itself.

The third phase is remediation. Decide how to respond to 
possible emergencies. Buy a gasoline-powered generator, a back-up 
solar power system, and a couple of propane-powered ministoves.

Decide who will run the food pantry and soup kitchen (which 
may be more in demand than ever). Partner higher-risk households 
(the elderly, shut-in, or handicapped) with those at lower risk. 
Partner with a "sister congregation" that may be more (or less) 
fortunate than your own. Prepare to welcome people who may not be 
able to attend their own congregations.

Start a Y2K "discretionary fund" for unexpected outreach 
expenses. Help members copy essential papers-bank statements, 
mortgages, wills-and store them in a safe place. Maintain a 
"tickle file" so that members using special medications can order 
an extra month's supply before it's needed. Know the skills and 
talents in your congregation-who is a doctor, nurse or dentist, 
who is trained in CPR, which experienced wilderness camper can 
make a gourmet meal on a camp stove.

The fourth step is testing. Check and double check plans. 
Make sure you have back-up systems before they're needed. Finally, 
there's implementation: the proof of all your planning, which 
comes at "ground zero." 

The spiritual heart of the Y2K challenge
There is a spiritual issue at the heart of the Y2K problem. 
Some even refer to it as a "breakthrough," a challenge to choose 
"social chaos or social transformation." Most thoughtful analysts 
agree that organizing people to face the threat of Y2K-even if 
little happens-may reverse some of the isolating and fragmenting 
effects that technology has had on community.

"Most Americans these days live in networks, not 
communities," wrote Eric Utne, founder and editor-in-chief of 
Utne Reader, in the newly-published Y2K Citizen's Action Guide. 
"We rarely associate with people who are not similar to us in 
terms of education, income, age, race, physical characteristics, 
and world view... Y2K is an opportunity to change all this."

The role of churches, many of which already offer contact 
with people who are different from us, hasn't been ignored. "Our 
churches can provide both physical and emotional centers for the 
work of reconnecting neighbors," write organizational consultants 
Margaret Wheatley and Myron Kellner-Rogers. "The sweet irony of 
Y2K is that if we use it now as an opportunity to re-create our 
communities and culture, whatever technological failures 
materialize won't have the same negative impact."

For Christians, there is the deeper issue of our public 
witness to our faith. "If nothing strange happens, God will still 
be in charge and we can praise Him for that," writes Y2K 
authority Rich Miller in "Y2K and the Church: An "Awareness 
Sermon" on the Year 2000 Problem. "If the world winds up in 
darkness, we are here to be a lighthouse for God. In the midst of 
uncertainty and confusion, we must never forget that we are a 
people with a message: Fear not!

"When you have peace in the midst of chaos and confusion, 
people notice. We need to communicate that our confidence is not 
because we believe in ourselves or in technology, but because we 
believe in God, who is our power source."

Southern Virginia is in the process of "redoing" the 
Diocesan computer system (such as it is).  Part of the reason is 
Y2K and part of the reason is our system-like many I have been 
associated with in Church and other organizations (including 
business)-just sort of happened over the years and is not very 
efficient.  This lets us "kill two birds with one stone."

--This article was originally published in RISEN, the newspaper of 
the Episcopal Diocese of Rhode Island, USA. c Jan Nunley 1999. 
Nunley, rector of St. Peter and St. Andrew Church in Providence, 
is director of communications for the diocese.

SIDEBAR: A field guide to Y2K resources

Pundit websites
Peter de Jager created and facilitates the Year 2000 Information 
Center website as well as the Year 2000 discussion list on the 
Internet. 
http://www.year2000.com 

Center for Cybereconomics - Dr. Ed Yardeni, who runs this site, is 
chief economist and a managing director of Deutsche Bank 
Securities (North America). http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html 

Site owner Edward Yourdon, chairman of Cutter Consortium, began 
his career in the computer industry at Digital Equipment Company 
more than 30 years ago. With his daughter Jennifer, he is the 
author of Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means 
to You. http://www.yourdon.com/index2.html 

John Westergaard is publisher/editor of the Westergaard Year 2000 
website. http://www.y2ktimebomb.com 

Christian websites
Y2K: A Christian Perspective provides evangelical Christians with 
"balanced information from a variety of sources and 
perspectives." http://www.christianbiz.com/y2k/index.shtml 

The Joseph Project 2000 is a Christian-led nonprofit site which 
"desires to prevent and respond to the potential impacts of the 
Year 2000 computer problem in a professional and balanced 
manner." http://www.josephproject2000.org 

Y2K for Women is a site "designed to explain the Year 2000 
Problem to women who have no, or very limited, computer 
knowledge." Men like it, too. 
http://www.y2kwomen.com/index.html 

Enter with care. Chief "doomsday prophet" of Y2K, Dr. Gary North 
is a co-founder of the extreme right-wing Christian Reconstruction 
movement. Balanced, he's not. http://www.garynorth.com/y2k 

Community & government websites
The Cassandra Project is a grassroots nonprofit organization 
formed to raise public awareness, promote community preparation 
activities and contingency planning, and establish a clearinghouse 
for community preparedness activities. 
http://www.cassandraproject.org/home.html 

Website for the US Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 
Technology Problem. Good links to other government sites. 
http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/index.html 

News updates
Y2K News Magazine is a bi-weekly publication providing total 
global coverage on Y2K problems. http://www.y2knews.com 

Y2K Today provides daily updates on Year 2000 issues. 
http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp 

Books and periodicals
Time Bomb 2000: What the Year 2000 Computer Crisis Means to You by 
Edward & Jennifer Yourdon. A father-daughter team, the Yourdons 
explain how the Y2K problem will affect the lives of average 
people and everyday systems by presenting a collection of 
scenarios ranging from the best to worst cases, and examine each 
extreme. A New York Times best-seller, this book is a good read 
for those looking for a starting place in learning about Y2K. 

The Millenium Bug: a Layman's Guide to the Year 2000 Computer 
Crisis by 
Michael S. Hyatt. An accessible, well-researched guide to Y2K 
issues across a range of industries, with a section on personal 
preparedness. A bit "preachy" towards the end. 

Y2K: Millennium Bug: A Balanced Christian Response by Shaunti 
Christine 
Feldhahn of the Joseph Project 2000, presents the advice of 
Christian leaders as she offers three possible scenarios that 
could result from the Y2K problem. Chapter 10 is good on 
congregational preparation. (Warning: Pat Robertson alert.) 

Finding and Fixing Your Year 2000 Problem: A Guide for Small 
Businesses by Jesse Feiler. A hands-on approach is offered to 
addressing and solving the year 2000 problem in the small 
enterprise (small businesses, schools, medical offices, home 
offices, etc.). 

Countdown Y2K Newsletter A monthly ministry publication compiled 
and edited by Shaunti Feldhahn of the Joseph Project 2000. One-
year subscription, $59.00. Contact 1-800-500-0867, or write 
Multnomah Publishers, PO Box 1720, Sisters, OR 97759. 

--This article was originally published in RISEN, the newspaper of 
the Episcopal Diocese of Rhode Island, USA. c Jan Nunley 1999. 
Nunley, rector of St. Peter and St. Andrew Church in Providence, 
is director of communications for the diocese.

Episcopal News Service
Kathryn McCormick
(212) 922-5383
kmccormick@dfms.org
www.ecusa.anglican.org/ens