wfn.org | Most clergy expect split in PC(USA), survey finds

[PCUSA NEWS <PCUSA.NEWS@ecunet.org>]

Note #6814 from PCUSA NEWS to PRESBYNEWS:

24-August-2001
01296

Most clergy expect split in PC(USA), survey finds

Panelists expect their own congregations to survive for a half-century

by Evan Silverstein

LOUISVILLE - It is at least "somewhat likely" that a large group will split
from the Presbyterian Church (USA) within the next 50 years, a majority of
pastors and specialized clergy speculated in a recent Presbyterian Panel
survey.

A large majority of pastors (73 percent) and specialized clergy (67 percent)
said they believe it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that by 2050 "a
large group will have split off" from the PC(USA) "to form a new
denomination." Elders were about evenly divided on the possibility of a
split, but more church members said they think a split is "unlikely."

More than half of members (60 percent) and elders (56 percent) said they
believe it is "not very likely" or "not likely at all" that the PC(USA) will
have merged out of existence by 2050.
Pastors' views are more evenly divided between "likely" and "unlikely." Only
among specialized clergy was a merger deemed likely by a majority (53
percent).

The findings were part of the February 2001 survey, Presbyterians in the
21st Century, conducted by the PC(USA)'s Research Services office. The
Presbyterian Panel consists of three representative samples of groups
affiliated with the PC(USA): members, elders (lay leaders) and ordained
ministers. Ministers are split into two groups based on whether or not they
are now serving in a congregation; those not in a congregation are called
"specialized clergy."
Randomly selected panelists participate in several surveys a year for three
years. This survey included responses from 595 members, 615 elders and 940
ordained ministers.

While most panelists said they want less conflict in the PC(USA), large
majorities (71 percent of members and 92 percent of specialized clergy)
reported a willingness "to tolerate different viewpoints in the church even
if it spills over into conflict sometimes." When pastors were asked whether
"conflict at the presbytery or General Assembly" has affected their
congregations, they were evenly split.

More than half of specialized clergy and 80 percent of elders said they
"strongly agree" or "agree" that the church "is in trouble" if members are
no longer willing to fight for their beliefs.
Nine of every 10 panelists (91 percent of elders, 93 percent of pastors)
said they are optimistic about the future of the Christian church worldwide.

About one-fourth of members, elders and pastors, and one-seventh of
specialized clergy, said it is "essential" to them personally that the
PC(USA) continue to be a separate denomination. Most others termed it
"important."

About one-quarter of members and pastors said they think religion has a
"great amount" of influence on American life; 58 percent of members and 53
percent of pastors said it has "some influence."
But a majority of pastors said they believe religion's influence on American
life is "decreasing," and about one-third of members and elders agreed.
Forty-one percent of members and 39 percent of elders said they think the
impact of religion is "staying about the same."

Opinions were about evenly divided as to whether religion will have more or
less influence on American society in 2050 than it does today.

Nearly half of elders (47 percent) and pastors (45 percent), asked what
broad trend or pattern will have the most impact on how Presbyterian
churches will look in 2050, selected an increase in the number of people in
"non-traditional families."

Thirty-six percent of elders and 39 percent of pastors said they think
increased racial-ethnic diversity will have the most impact, while 35
percent of elders and 49 percent of pastors chose "consumerism/materialism"
as the most important trend or pattern. "People living longer" was chosen by
34 percent of elders and 32 percent of pastors.

Comfortable majorities of all groups said they think it is "very likely" or
"somewhat likely" that by 2050 congregations will have more autonomy, while
more than 90 percent of pastors and 79 percent of specialized clergy said
they consider it "very likely or somewhat likely" that "synods will no
longer exist as governing bodies" at mid-century. Three-fourths of both
ministers' groups said they believe it is "very likely or somewhat likely"
that by 2050 General Assembly meetings will occur only every two or three
years.

Large majorities of all samples said they think it is "not very likely" or
"not likely at all" that by 2050 pastors' salaries will be paid by the
national church; pastors will "make the same pay regardless of the size or
wealth" of their congregations; or pastors will be assigned to congregations
by a regional church leader.

Majorities of members, elders and pastors said they think it is "very
likely" that their congregations will exist in 2050. Only 10 to 12 percent
considered it "not very likely" or "not likely at all."

In other findings:
 
* Majorities of every group said they expect increases in their
congregations' racial-ethnic diversity, membership, average age and number
of young adults in the next 25 to 50 years.

* Most lay panelists said they expect little or no change in the
preponderance of organ music in worship in their congregations, while a
majority of pastors said they are expecting a decrease.

* Two-thirds or more of panelists in all groups said they expect increases
over the next several decades in the percentage of PC(USA) congregations
with woman pastors, racially or ethnically diverse memberships, and worship
opportunities on other days of the week besides Sunday.

* Most ministers (74 percent of pastors, 67 percent of specialized clergy)
said they expect an increase in the percentage of congregations with "no
installed pastor of any kind."
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