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[PCUSANEWS] Election analysis reveals pronounced 'God gap'


From PCUSA NEWS <PCUSA.NEWS@ECUNET.ORG>
Date Fri, 5 Nov 2004 14:54:09 -0600

Note #8563 from PCUSA NEWS to PRESBYNEWS:

04493
November 5, 2004

Election analysis reveals pronounced 'God gap' between parties

by Kim Lawton
Religion & Ethics Newsweekly
Distributed by Religion News Service

WASHINGTON - Despite efforts by Democrats to reach out to faith-based voters,
a detailed exit poll analysis of Tuesday's election shows a "God gap" between
the parties, with Republicans building support in almost every major
religious group, including black Protestants.

	According to exit polls conducted for the PBS television program
"Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly," the more often voters attended religious
services, the more likely they were to vote for President Bush. At the same
time, those who described themselves as "secular" or having no religious
affiliation voted overwhelmingly for John Kerry.

	This continues trends identified in the 2000 election.

	"The religion gap was more pronounced. It may be that this is going
to be a feature of American politics for some years to come," John C. Green
of the University of Akron told "Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly."

	Green, one of the nation's leading experts on religion and politics,
and the director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, analyzes
the faith factors in the election on the national PBS program airing this
weekend.

	In 2004, Bush's victory came from a broad religious coalition that
depended heavily on evangelicals and regular-Mass attending Roman Catholics,
but it included other faith traditions as well.

	According to the polls, the vast majority of white born-again
Protestants - 78 percent - voted for Bush. Nearly 86 percent of evangelicals
who attend church more than once a week voted for the President.

	But Green said Bush also successfully reached out to mainline
Protestants.  A slight majority of mainline Protestants voted for Bush,
although those numbers appeared to decline from 2000.

	"It looks like Bush actually did pretty well among moderate and
liberal white Protestants who say they go to church a few times a month,"
Green said.  "This was a key group that Kerry wanted."

	One significant religious shift occurred among black Protestants, who
traditionally have voted overwhelmingly Democratic. Although only about
11percent of  African-Americans overall voted for Bush, 16 percent of those
who identified themselves as black Protestants voted for him. That's double
the number of black Protestants who voted for him in 2000. And the numbers
jumped dramatically for those who attend church more than once a week: 22
percent of those black Protestants voted for Bush.

	"Given the closeness of the election, for him to have eaten in to
this core Democratic group, I think, is impressive," said Green.

	This year, Bush also received a majority of the Catholic vote.
Fifty-two percent of all Roman Catholics voted for Bush, while 48 percent
voted for Kerry. In 2000, Al Gore, a Baptist, received half of the Catholic
vote, while Bush got 46 percent.

	"This is all the more remarkable given that Senator Kerry is a Roman
Catholic. Clearly the level of Catholic support for Kerry stands in stark
contrast to Catholic support given to (John F.) Kennedy less than 50 years
ago," said Corwin Smidt, editor of the new book Pulpit and Politics.

	Among regular Mass-goers, the numbers were even more pronounced: 58
percent of Catholics who attend church more than once a week voted for Bush.
Within the Catholic population overall, Kerry only received a majority from
Catholics who say they never go to Mass and those who say they only attend
Mass a few times a year.

	Kerry did receive a majority (58 percent) of the Hispanic Catholic
vote. Latinos have traditionally leaned Democratic. However, Bush made
significant gains within the community. Thirty-nine percent of Latino
Catholics voted for him this year, compared to only 30 percent in 2000.

	"It may be that some of the 'values' issues helped pull these people
to Bush, which was very significant, particularly in places like New Mexico
and Colorado," Green said.

	Republicans also continued to make inroads within the Jewish
community, another traditional Democratic stronghold. Twenty-four percent of
Jews voted for Bush in 2004, compared to almost 20 percent in 2000.

	The most dramatic religious shift occurred among Muslims. Ninety-two
percent of Muslims voted for Kerry, and only 6 percent voted for Bush. In
2000, the majority of Muslims voted for Bush, but many in the community now
feel betrayed by post 9/11 security crackdowns, which they believe unfairly
target them. Muslims are still developing politically, and only make up about
one percent of the total electorate.

	Members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who make
up about 2 percent of the electorate, voted overwhelmingly Republican,
casting 80 percent of their votes for the president.

	While Bush's religious coalition was broad, scholars said
evangelicals and conservative Catholics provided the key.

	"The political mobilization of evangelical Protestants that (Ronald)
Reagan began has been the most important change in the past quarter-century
of American electoral politics," said Laura Olson, associate professor of
political science at Clemson University. "This political realignment has led
many people of faith to view the Republican Party as the only party that
takes its needs and concerns seriously."

	Many analysts said the numbers provide stark evidence that the
Democratic Party is increasingly out of step with large segments of the faith
community.

	"Since about 40 percent of all Americans attend church weekly, the
Democrats will have a hard time electing a president until they are more
sensitive to the concerns of the church-going populace," said Stephen Monsma,
Research Fellow at the Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and
Politics at Calvin College. He added: "There are ways they can do this and
still largely maintain their liberal issue positions, but they must become
much more sophisticated in doing so."

	But Professor Mark Regnerus of the University of Texas at Austin
believes the only way Democrats can win national elections is by
reconsidering their platform positions on social issues such as abortion and
gay marriage. Those must be moderated, he said "as shocking as that may sound
to party members' ears."

	"I believe the evidence suggests that pro-life Democrats would appeal
to many religious conservatives, especially Catholics, but the Democratic
Party continues to chew them up and spit them out," he said.

(Kim Lawton is managing editor of "Religion & Ethics Newsweekly," a weekly
PBS television show.)

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